RFE: Classified EU document on future Vucic policies

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Radio Free Europe said on Tuesday that it was granted access to a classified European Commission document which predicts possible steps that Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic could take to continue his political balancing act.

“European intelligence services drew up an analysis which said that President Vucic is trying to take steps on the domestic and international scene to postpone his break with Russia and has continue winning concessions from the West,” RFE said.

It said that the document has been classified as confidential and was drawn up for the needs of the European External Action Service (EEAS) headed by the European Union’s top diplomat Josep Borrell.

RFE claims to have had access to the document which allegedly analyzes Vucic’s next steps. The document is reported to say that the Russian invasion of Ukraine presents a balance of forces problem for Vucic, reducing Serbia’s room to maneuver in foreign and security policy terms.

“In order to ease the strong pressure from the West over the sanctions, President Vucic is planning to take various steps internationally and domestically to ward off any negative implications for Serbia but mainly to maintain his own political power,” the document said.

It said that there is a great probability that the forming of a new government will be postponed for as long as possible as an excuse to avoid imposing sanctions on Russia.

“On the other hand, the EU document said, the Serbian President is expected to implement a policy of small steps to bring Serbia closer to the West. The goal is to delay his final break with Russia and use future foreign policy changes to win as many political and economic concessions as possible,” RFE said.

The document is reported to say that the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC) would play a key role if Serbia chooses to turn to the West, adding that SPC head Patriarch Porfirije is very close to Vucic and could play an important role in getting the public to accept a pro-West policy. “Generous state donations to the SPC will help Porfirije convince the clergy,” the RFE quoted the document as saying.

The document said that Vucic could use the pro-Russia right-wing opposition in parliament as an excuse for not taking hard foreign policy decisions. “Vucic prefers that opposition because it allows him to portray himself as a moderate politician to the West,” the document allegedly says recalling that some parties on the right of the political spectrum have financial and logistical support from the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).

“The European intelligence services predicted that tensions will grow inside the SNS during power sharing at local and state level and over future foreign policy decisions,” RFE said. It said that the composition of the new government will be a clear indicator of Serbia’s direction in foreign policy with the document saying that Vucic will probably keep pro-West and pro-Russia ministers in the new government to continue his political balancing act.

The document is alleged to say that the new prime minister will be from the SNS and mentions Finance Minister Sinisa Mali, Foreign Minister Nikola Selakovic and, to a lesser extent, outgoing Prime Minister Ana Brnabic as possible candidates. It is reported to devote an entire paragraph to Sleakovic who, according to the document, will either be PM or hold an important cabinet post. It also said that Serbia’s Ambassador to the US Marko Djuric is a possible candidate for PM but added that “Moscow recommends Selakovic”.

RFE said that the document also analyzed the role of opposition Party of Freedom and Justice (SSP) leader Dragan Djilas. The document is reported to say that there are indications of his “behind the scenes cooperation with Vucic and his role as a Trojan Horse bringing discord to the opposition and weakening them”. Cooperation between Djilas and Vucic became more likely after their meeting in mid-April and announcement of possible early Belgrade city elections later this year or early next year.